‘If you’re in power for 15 years, you feel all is well’

Former Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty discussed a range of issues from India-Bangladesh ties under Sheikh Hasina’s regime, her downfall, and her presence in India with Shubhajit Roy, diplomatic affairs editor of The Indian Express.
On what the Hasina govt meant for Bangladesh
Chakravarty said Bangladesh became one of the fastest-growing economies in Asia, and had a stable relationship with India.
Indian investments were made in Bangladesh, and the countries developed energy connectivity, railway, and transport links, and trade grew to almost $18 billion.
Bangladeshis also were the largest set of tourists to India.
On the negative side, there were allegations of elections not being free and fair, he said.
The BNP boycotted the polls and the Jamaat-e-Islami was banned as a political organisation and a party.
Hasina also banned the Jamaat’s student wing, the Islamic Chhatra Shibir.
Additionally, she instituted the International War Crimes Tribunal, for Jamaat leaders who were pro-Pakistan in 1971. Those leaders were convicted and hanged; that created bad blood.
Later, BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia was convicted of corruption. Such domestic developments gave the feeling that Sheikh Hasina was becoming increasingly authoritarian, Chakravarty said.
India had no role to play in those things; they were entirely domestic, he added.
On India’s relationship with Bangladesh govt under Hasina
India’s problems with the previous BNP-Jamaat government were over security issues and their ties with Pakistan’s Inter-services Intelligence (ISI).
The BNP has always been a little right-wing and pro-Pakistan. Jamaat, of course, has always been very pro-Pakistan, although they now claim that they are different. The BNP, too, claims they have changed, said the former envoy.
Festive offer
When Hasina came to power in 2009, she said they would not allow Bangladesh soil to be used against Indian security interests, which was something she lived up to, Chakravarty said.
The United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) Assam insurgency leaders were handed over to India. She ensured the insurgents’ camps were uprooted and handed over, said the report.
“I remember how Hasina first told me that she needed electricity from India. That is how the project began for connecting the grids,” he said.
“Today, we provide almost 1,200 megawatts. We also planned the Numaligarh refinery pipeline to northern Bangladesh, to provide diesel and petroleum products.”
On the dissatisfaction with the economy, especially among the youth
“I think people welcomed the economic growth until the Ukraine war broke out and the energy and food prices went sky high,” said Chakravarty.
Further, Bangladesh’s growth was probably not equitable. The jobs created were insufficient and a younger generation was entering the economy. That’s why the anti-quota agitation came in since quotas blocked employment in the government.
Later, with the elections, the new voters felt that they were not getting a choice, said the Indian Express report.
On how the anti-quota agitation grew
Chakravarty said he believed the agitation would have stopped after the Supreme Court judgement, which reduced the quota to only 7 percent.
More than 300 people died during those agitations. The protesters returned with a nine-point demand. They wanted the resignation of ministers, the police commissioner, and so on.
“Now, why they did that is a mystery. And my view is that there were other influences at work there — mostly foreign and some internal. Since Hasina obviously did not agree to sack her ministers they went on a rampage again. And this time, I think, it was a very well-oiled machine backing them,” the former high commissioner said.
“Why did it turn so political, with the march to Dhaka and demands for the PM’s resignation? That is also a question. I would say that ultimately it was the army that unseated her by saying that, no, we can’t protect you. We will not fire on these protesters,” he added.
On whether India saw this coming
“Did we know about the things happening in Bangladesh? Of course, we knew. But the question is whether Sheikh Hasina anticipated her downfall. My sense is that she didn’t, maybe if you stay for 15 years in power, then you feel that everything is okay,” said Chakravarty.
On the interim govt led by Yunus
“It comprises different kinds of people. There is a leader of the far-right group Hefazat-e-Islam Bangladesh. Then there are BNP sympathisers. And then, of course, Professor Yunus is there. He’s a big, internationally-known figure. I would say he’s very anti-Hasina and she has slammed several legal cases against him, for things such as embezzlement,” Chakravarty said.
“My worry is, will they (different sections) be able to work together? All of them could pull the government in different directions,” he said.
There are two student leaders in the advisory council and apparently, there are two student appointees in every ministry to oversee what it does. Of course, some indicators are there, said the report.
“For example, Prof Yunus has said we must revive the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc). He has also reportedly said that he would want Bangladesh to join The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean),” he said.
“But ultimately, reality will bite. Things are still all over the place. Hindus were also attacked, unfortunately, they are seen as Awami League supporters.”
In 2001, when the BNP-Jamaat government came to power, the same thing happened, said the former envoy.
On Sheikh Hasina’s presence in India
“Hasina has been here before, from 1975 to ’81, when her whole family was murdered as part of a political plot. She’s back again. Does she have a future as a political leader of the Awami League (AL)? I would say we cannot dismiss the possibility that the AL reorganises, they are not a party that will disappear,” said Chakravarty.
“They will participate in the next elections. Would Hasina then go back? She’ll have to face cases and inquiries, and they might put her in jail. It’s what was done to Khaleda Zia, and revenge politics is very much possible. But will the AL produce a new leader? These are all possibilities.
“Whether Hasina will continue to stay here is her choice. I don’t think the government of India is going to push her out,” Chakravarty concluded.